HEZBOLLAH, HOUTHI, TALIBAN: THE NEW TRIPLE THREAT TO ISRAEL’S DEMISE
By Vincent Lyn
“An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes.” ~ Sun Tzu
Israel’s invasion of Gaza has backfired dramatically, potentially threatening the very existence of the Israeli state.
The reasons are straightforward.
First, Israel confused tactics with strategy. For nine months, Israel has continuously bombed Gaza, a tactical military decision.
However, in focusing on this military tactic, Israel overlooked the broader aspects of geopolitical strategy, including its global reputation. The relentless bombing of Gaza has severely damaged Israel’s standing on the world stage.
Now, Israel is increasingly seen as a pariah state, comparable to pre-apartheid South Africa.
Israel assumed that global support, particularly from allies like the USA and UK, would remain unwavering regardless of its actions towards the Palestinians. This proved to be a grave miscalculation. The international community is now distancing itself from Israel.
Israel’s relationship with its neighbors is similar to a schoolyard bully who relies on his big brother for protection. The other kids tolerate the bully to avoid the older, stronger sibling’s wrath.
But what happens if the older sibling is no longer there?
Suddenly, the schoolyard bully is isolated. Outnumbered by his victims, he faces retribution.
Israel has always relied on the USA to back it up in regional conflicts. However, this assumption may no longer hold true.
The global community is distancing itself from Israel. Anti-Israel protests are common in the streets of America and Europe. The U.S. Congress, once a steadfast supporter of Israel, is now showing signs of withdrawal.
Wars consume vast amounts of ammunition and equipment, requiring continuous imports of armaments.
Yet, the world is increasingly restricting the supply of arms to Israel. Even the USA has reduced its weapon shipments. Just recently, Israel sent a high-level delegation to Washington to appeal to the Biden administration for the resumption of American military hardware deliveries.
The international community is nearing the point of refusing to supply further armaments to Israel due to the ongoing bombing of Gaza. Whether through individual decisions or a collective U.N. arms embargo, the world is close to declaring “Enough.”
An arms embargo would be detrimental if Israel were only dealing with Hamas in Gaza. However, the conflict has expanded significantly.
Israel and Hezbollah have recently engaged in low-level conflict on Israel’s northern border. This is not new, as Hezbollah in South Lebanon has been in a cold war with Israel for decades, a conflict that frequently erupts into violence.
(Hezbollah is not the government of Lebanon. It is a unique entity: a political and military force that has established an independent stronghold within a nation-state.)
But this conflict is unlike previous border skirmishes.
Now, Israel faces the possibility of a ground invasion by Hezbollah. The Party of God boasts 100,000 fighters, many of whom are battle-hardened from years of fighting in Syria in support of the Assad regime against ISIS.
Hezbollah is not alone. It is backed by a coalition of forces, including irregular fighters and organized armies.
The Taliban has pledged support for Hezbollah, as has the Houthi military government of Yemen. Both the Taliban and Houthi regimes are relatively new on the world stage but have successfully seized control of their countries through military force. They know how to wield power effectively.
Iran and Syria also back Hezbollah, providing the formal resources and infrastructure of nation-states.
Critics may dismiss the idea of a Hezbollah-Houthi-Taliban alliance challenging Israel, arguing that such a coalition would lack the combat power of an organized military. In a traditional sense, they might be right.
However, it was exactly this kind of unconventional force that defeated a superpower in Afghanistan — twice.
The Taliban, with support from foreign Islamist fighters, expelled the Soviet Union from Afghanistan in the 1980s and repeated the feat against the United States just three years ago.
A similar foreign army may now be forming in South Lebanon, ready to support Hezbollah in its impending battle against Israel. Thousands of foreign fighters could be arriving by land and sea.
Meanwhile, Israel is losing international support, including vital imports of arms and ammunition necessary to sustain a high-tempo military campaign.
The strategic landscape of the Middle East is undergoing significant changes. Yet, most media commentary remains mired in simplistic jingoism and name-calling that has long characterized discussions about the Palestine-Israel conflict.
Such shallow analysis is increasingly perilous.
The stakes are rising, the opportunity for a peaceful resolution is diminishing, and the likelihood of a broader regional war in the Levant is increasing.
Historically, two things are true of regional wars:
They inevitably draw in superpowers and spiral out of control.
The international community must prioritize achieving peace in the Levant before it’s too late.
Vincent Lyn
CEO & Founder of We Can Save Children
Deputy Ambassador of International Human Rights Commission (IHRC)
Director of Creative Development at African Views Organization
Economic & Social Council at United Nations (ECOSOC)
Rescue & Recovery Specialist at International Confederation of Police & Security Experts