THE SECRET WAR: INSIDE HYBRID CONFLICTS

By Vincent Lyn with Sardar Nouman Azam Mughal

Pakistan’s situation has intensified, particularly in Balochistan. Reports from EU DisinfoLab, along with the increased anti-Pakistan rhetoric by Indian electronic media, YouTube channels, and fake Twitter handles, indicate a heightened focus on the province of Balochistan.

“For the present, we are at war and do not grasp the dimensions of the conflict.

–Ralph Peters.

Despite living in a globalized and interconnected world characterized by complex interdependence, where states embrace liberal norms like free trade and international institutions strive to ensure peace and harmony among nations, conventional conflicts can still occur. Moreover, these conflicts are not the only means to destabilize a country. The security climate of the 21st century is defined by the concept of hybrid warfare.

Hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon; it has long been an effective, influential, and powerful tool in conflict, thus gaining favor in our advanced and globalized world.

Hybrid warfare is not a recent innovation; it has long been a highly effective, influential, and powerful tool in conflict, widely utilized in our advanced and globalized world. This type of warfare often involves intelligence-driven activities conducted by state or non-state actors to create instability and damage the reputation of an adversary. These actions, which can include terrorism and the spread of false perceptions, aim to exploit religious, partisan, and racial divisions within social, political, and socioeconomic spheres.

Additionally, Pakistan’s youth are being targeted by fifth-generation warfare. Enemy states are spreading misinformation and disinformation about the economic and security conditions in various regions of Pakistan. These campaigns primarily focus on ethnic communities, religious sects, and minorities within the country.

Balochistan, a significant geostrategic and geoeconomic hub of Pakistan, has faced external hostilities since its inception in 1947. Professor Dr. Amir Muhammad Khan Jogezai, son of tribal chief Sardar Baz Mohammad Khan Jogezai and a close companion of Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, describes foreign involvement in Balochistan as follows: “It has become a battlefield among the major powers of the world, and all these forces are impeding the socioeconomic development of Balochistan.” The province has experienced externally fueled revolts, suicide attacks, bomb blasts, and multiple waves of militancy.

The adversaries and rival states of Pakistan have been striving to incite chaos and rebellion in the province to further their interests. Pursuing their malicious agendas, these foes have devised schemes against Balochistan, employing tactics characteristic of fifth-generation warfare.

Meanwhile, Balochistan is under siege by hostile and unfamiliar forces, exposed to fifth-generation warfare. Adversaries and rival states of Pakistan have been working to incite chaos and rebellion in the province to serve their own interests. Pursuing their malicious plans, these foes have devised schemes against Balochistan, utilizing the tools of fifth-generation warfare.

In this modern age of digital media and artificial intelligence, many states are engaged in propaganda targeting Pakistan’s armed forces. Additionally, foreign-funded NGOs are contributing to the anti-state discourse. Social media cells and media labs are actively misrepresenting global issues like inflation and unemployment, framing them as problems unique to “only in Balochistan” or “only with Balochs.” This narrative makes the youth of Balochistan particularly vulnerable, leaving them susceptible to brainwashing.

Additionally, our eastern neighbor, India, has repeatedly attempted to exploit the people of Balochistan by promoting separatist ideologies through its proxy networks, as revealed by the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhev. New Delhi is also engaged in a campaign of black propaganda against the Pakistani state and its institutions. This propaganda hinges on the Indian narrative of Chinese occupation, labeling developmental projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as “a debt trap.”

Such propaganda resonates with some segments of the population already disillusioned with the central government’s policies on various issues. In the post-truth era, these efforts have successfully obscured the realities and achievements of our development agencies and the sacrifices made by our armed forces to maintain peace and stability in Balochistan. They have portrayed Foreign Direct Investment as an exploitative scheme, which has fueled negative sentiments against both Beijing and Islamabad among the local population.

Recently, the anti-Reko Diq2 campaign, manifested through protests, was also a product of fifth-generation warfare. Indian electronic and digital media, along with militant groups, labeled the developmental project as resource exploitation. Astonishingly, a day after the agreement was signed between a Pakistani and a Canadian company, thousands of tweets emerged from India, urging the company to withdraw from Balochistan. This sentiment was echoed in a press release by Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (an umbrella organization of various Baloch ethno-nationalist groups) and amplified by Indian news channels, social media pages, and anti-Pakistan campaigns on Twitter.

Meanwhile, the disclosure in a report by the EU DisinfoLab revealed a covert disinformation campaign aimed at tarnishing Pakistan’s image internationally and destabilizing it internally. This campaign sought to weaken civil-military relations and foster distrust between the state and its citizens. According to the 2020 EU DisinfoLab report, 750 Indian-backed websites had been spreading anti-Pakistan content for the past 15 years, operating in over 115 countries worldwide.

Furthermore, investigations have revealed the creation, repackaging, and global distribution of fake news through ANI in Brussels, Geneva, and various other global hubs, influencing local media networks in at least 97 countries and supporting India’s interests in conflicts with neighboring nations. This online content proliferation is on the rise.

Similarly, several other channels and digital newspapers, such as The Balochistan Post based in Germany, are involved in amplifying anti-state propaganda of banned organizations. They often sensationalize facts and have been somewhat successful in fabricating issues under the guise of addressing relative deprivation.

An illustrative example of this misinformation campaign was evident in the reporting of incidents in Panjgur and Noshki, where Twitter accounts operating from India under Baloch identities amplified and disseminated fake news. Furthermore, prominent Indian newspapers like Hindustan Times have published editorials and articles glorifying insurgents and their attacks.

Pakistan is currently engaged in fifth-generation warfare, particularly in Balochistan, where rival states aim to influence the youth. Relative deprivation is not the primary cause of the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, but it does contribute to youth recruitment in militant organizations to some extent. Recently, two alleged female suicide bombers, Noor Jahan and Habiba, were apprehended from different districts of Balochistan. According to a spokesperson for the Balochistan government, both women were recruits of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and were tasked with targeting a vehicle carrying Chinese citizens in another suicide attack.

The recruitment of Baloch women into militant groups reflects the exploitation of Balochistan’s youth sentiments through anti-state narratives propagated via literature, false reporting, and digital media. These tactics exacerbate the erosion of national cohesion and integration.

Despite all the developmental projects, government initiatives, and the sacrifices of the armed forces to maintain peace in Balochistan, these efforts are overshadowed by fifth-generation warfare propaganda.

Several factors are contributing to the current challenges in Balochistan, including a visible trust deficit between the state and Baloch youth, as well as issues related to national cohesion. These core issues are being exploited to serve the interests of rival states and sub-ethno-nationalist groups.

Despite all the developmental projects, government initiatives, and the sacrifices of the armed forces aimed at maintaining peace and harmony in Balochistan, these efforts are being overshadowed by propaganda tactics associated with fifth-generation warfare. For instance, the recently released song “Waja” by Shahzad Roy, while widely praised across Pakistan, faced criticism from some quarters in Balochistan. Conversely, a song released by the BLA’s media cell glorifying Shari Baloch (a female suicide bomber) was widely condemned nationwide. Nevertheless, Indian media, sponsored YouTube channels, and fake Twitter accounts attempted to amplify the propaganda song, creating an illusion of local support.

To counteract this prevailing discourse among Balochistan’s youth, Pakistan needs initiatives to strengthen civil-military relations and establish Balochistan-centric think tanks and media labs. These efforts are crucial in combating black propaganda and promoting accurate discourse. Such initiatives can also facilitate effective policy formulation tailored to the needs of Balochistan’s people and contribute to producing genuine and positive academic literature. This approach will help fill the research gap on Balochistan, covering its social, political, and economic conditions comprehensively.

In Azad Jammu and Kashmir, a recent Action Committee led by Chairman Shukat Nwaz Mir has misled the Kashmiri nation, fostering animosity against Pakistan. During Indian elections, Indian leaders vowed to take over what they term as “POK,” or Pakistani Occupied Kashmir. Numerous suspicious organizations like JKSLF, JKNSF, JKMI, and domestic groups such as BRM (Basic Rights Movement) and Jammu and Kashmir Independence Movement United Kashmir, directly or indirectly contribute to worsening law and order.

Pakistan’s military and intelligence officials are actively countering conspiracies in strategically crucial regions like Balochistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and the newly merged districts of KPK, where anti-Pakistan agencies support PTM, BLA, and BNF groups.

Former coordinator for State Disaster Management, Rehabilitation, and Civil Defense in Azad Jammu and Kashmir was kidnapped on January 7, 2024, from Neelum Bridge in Muzaffarabad, rescued three days later from Sahiwal District, Punjab, Pakistan. According to Sardar Nouman Azam Mughal, the abduction was an attempt on his life and an effort to move him to Afghanistan through Balochistan.

Sardar Nouman, my colleague, is a staunch advocate against Pakistan’s enemies. Pakistan cannot be coerced or dictated to. Its relationship with India is based on sovereign equality. Without resolving the Kashmir dispute per UN resolutions, peace in South Asia-Pacific cannot be sustained.

India must consider not undermining Pakistan’s fight against terrorism and extremism. Afghanistan remains a significant factor in terror activities against Pakistan, orchestrated and trained by Indian and multiple agencies.

The Pakistani nation is resilient and possesses one of the strongest armies, strategically positioned for battle. Long live Pakistan.

Vincent Lyn

CEO & Founder of We Can Save Children

Deputy Ambassador of International Human Rights Commission (IHRC)

Director of Creative Development at African Views Organization

Economic & Social Council at United Nations (ECOSOC)

Rescue & Recovery Specialist at International Confederation of Police & Security Experts